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Tampa, FL 33609 Real Estate Market Report

ZIP Code: 33609
Report Date: May 2026
Market Temperature: NEUTRAL
Scope: This ZIP code analysis focuses on single-family residential (SFR) properties. Metrics are calculated from recent sales and active listings within the past 90 days.


Market Overview

This analysis is based on a sample of properties from this ZIP code (up to 200 sold properties and up to 100 active properties). The median prices below are calculated from all available properties in the sample, while trend analysis uses properties from the selected analysis window.

Analysis Window
90 Days
Total Properties Analyzed
135
Active Listings
105
Sold Properties
30

Market Metrics

Median Listing Price
$949,000
Median Sold Price
$789,000
Median Price per Sqft
$391/sqft

Note: The property counts shown above represent only the properties analyzed in this report sample, not the total inventory for this ZIP code. Median prices are calculated from all available properties in the sample, while trend analysis uses properties from the selected analysis window.


Rental Market

Median Market Rent
$2,595

Note: The relationship between property values and rental rates reflects different market dynamics. Higher-priced properties may have lower rental yields due to factors such as luxury market positioning, owner-occupancy preferences, or long-term appreciation strategies rather than immediate rental income maximization.


Property Taxes

Property Tax Rate
0.99%

Liquidity & Velocity

Median Days on Market
325
Sale-to-List Ratio
100.0%

Note: A Sale-to-List Ratio near 100% can occur when properties sell at or near their final listing price after price adjustments during the listing period, even when initial listing prices differ significantly from sale prices.


Market Trends & Context

Understanding Market Temperature

A Neutral market indicates balanced conditions where neither buyers nor sellers have a strong advantage, typically characterized by flat price trends, extended but stable days on market, and moderate inventory relative to sales.

Price YoY Trend
down
Market Temperature
neutral
Rent YoY Trend
flat
Interest Rate Pressure
elevated

Key Findings

  1. The neighborhood's representative recent sale shows a median sold price 789,000, which anchors current market value and suggests sellers should align expectations with recent transaction prices rather than higher asking levels; with the market temperature described as neutral, pricing should be positioned to attract buyers who are comparing to realized sales.

  2. The spread between the median sold price 789,000 and the median listing price 949,000 highlights pricing friction and may indicate that sellers are listing above transacted values; sellers who need timely liquidity should consider setting offers closer to recent sold levels to avoid extended marketing time.

  3. The median days on market 325 signals materially slower sales velocity, which may translate into longer negotiation windows and increased likelihood of concessions; agents and sellers should plan for extended marketing timelines and proactive buyer incentives given this duration. down in the price year-over-year trend further supports cautious pricing.

  4. The median price per square foot 391 and a median market rent 2,595 provide context for investor underwriting and rent-vs-buy trade-offs; with rent year-over-year trend flat and interest rate pressure described as elevated, underwriting should assume constrained financing tailwinds and incorporate higher financing costs into offer strategies.


Notable Properties

The following 8 properties represent notable market examples and recent transactions that illustrate key market dynamics. These are illustrative examples selected for their significance (top sales, market benchmarks, quick sales) and are not the basis for the statistical calculations shown above.

Recent Transactions

4111 W Swann Ave, Tampa, FL 33609
Top Sale

Highest sale in the past 90 days. Fully renovated with modern finishes and premium lot positioning.

5 beds
4.5 baths
4,532 sqft
$2,500,000
Apr 1, 2026
$552/sqft/sqft
339 days on market
420 S Royal Poinciana Dr, Tampa, FL 33609
Market Benchmark

Sold at market average

5 beds
5.5 baths
5,777 sqft
$2,300,000
Feb 1, 2026
$398/sqft/sqft
163 days on market
4215 W Culbreath Ave, Tampa, FL 33609
Premium

Sold above market average

4 beds
3.5 baths
3,174 sqft
$1,625,000
Feb 1, 2026
$512/sqft/sqft
256 days on market
4107 W Mullen Ave, Tampa, FL 33609
Market Benchmark

Representative market sale establishing baseline for properties in the core neighborhood.

3 beds
2 baths
1,754 sqft
$835,000
Feb 1, 2026
$476/sqft/sqft
90 days on market
3816 W Horatio St Unit 2, Tampa, FL 33609
Market Benchmark

Representative market sale establishing baseline for properties in the core neighborhood.

3 beds
2.5 baths
2,152 sqft
$770,000
Mar 1, 2026
$358/sqft/sqft
116 days on market
203 S Tampania Ave Unit 1, Tampa, FL 33609
Market Benchmark

Representative market sale establishing baseline for properties in the core neighborhood.

3 beds
3.5 baths
1,936 sqft
$740,000
Mar 1, 2026
$382/sqft/sqft
196 days on market
3905 W Carmen St, Tampa, FL 33609
Value

Sold below market average

3 beds
2 baths
1,172 sqft
$375,000
Mar 1, 2026
$320/sqft/sqft
410 days on market
607 N Matanzas Ave, Tampa, FL 33609
Value

Sold below market average

2 beds
1 baths
1,378 sqft
$370,000
Mar 1, 2026
$269/sqft/sqft
81 days on market

Tampa, FL 33609 Real Estate Market Report

ZIP Code: 33609
Report Date: May 2026
Market Temperature: NEUTRAL
Scope: This ZIP code analysis focuses on condominium properties. Metrics are calculated from recent condo sales and active listings within the past 90 days.


Market Overview

This analysis is based on a sample of properties from this ZIP code (up to 200 sold properties and up to 100 active properties). The median prices below are calculated from all available properties in the sample, while trend analysis uses properties from the selected analysis window.

Analysis Window
90 Days
Total Properties Analyzed
51
Active Listings
21
Sold Properties
30

Market Metrics

Median Listing Price
$349,999
Median Sold Price
$269,900
Median Price per Sqft
$300/sqft

Note: The property counts shown above represent only the properties analyzed in this report sample, not the total inventory for this ZIP code. Median prices are calculated from all available properties in the sample, while trend analysis uses properties from the selected analysis window.


Rental Market

Median Market Rent
$1,900

Property Taxes

Property Tax Rate
1.47%

Liquidity & Velocity

Median Days on Market
358
Sale-to-List Ratio
100.0%

Note: A Sale-to-List Ratio near 100% can occur when properties sell at or near their final listing price after price adjustments during the listing period, even when initial listing prices differ significantly from sale prices.


Market Trends & Context

Understanding Market Temperature

A Neutral market indicates balanced conditions where neither buyers nor sellers have a strong advantage, typically characterized by flat price trends, extended but stable days on market, and moderate inventory relative to sales.

Price YoY Trend
down
Market Temperature
neutral
Rent YoY Trend
flat
Interest Rate Pressure
elevated

Key Findings

  1. The primary market indicator, <strong>median sold price: 269,900</strong>, points to recent transaction values and should be treated as the representative recent sale level for valuation and comps; this contrasts with the asking environment where the <strong>median listing price: 349,999</strong> suggests meaningful pricing gaps that may indicate seller optimism above realized sale levels.

  2. Liquidity and velocity are soft: the <strong>median days on market: 358</strong> signals materially slower sales velocity and suggests pricing friction and longer marketing periods are common in the current sample, which may necessitate seller concessions or adjusted timeframes for closings.

  3. Price momentum and market context show headwinds: the <strong>price year-over-year trend: down</strong> combined with <strong>market temperature: neutral</strong> implies values are easing while overall balance remains neither strongly favoring buyers nor sellers, so underwriting should assume a cautious near-term pricing environment and moderate negotiation dynamics.

  4. Rent and cost context: the <strong>median market rent: 1,900</strong> with a <strong>rent year-over-year trend: flat</strong> indicates rental demand is holding but not accelerating, and elevated financing costs (<strong>interest rate pressure: elevated</strong>) add upward cost pressure that can dampen buyer affordability and candidate purchase activity.


Notable Properties

The following 8 properties represent notable market examples and recent transactions that illustrate key market dynamics. These are illustrative examples selected for their significance (top sales, market benchmarks, quick sales) and are not the basis for the statistical calculations shown above.

Recent Transactions

107 S Sherrill St, Tampa, FL 33609
Top Sale

Highest sale in the past 90 days. Fully renovated with modern finishes and premium lot positioning.

2 beds
2 baths
1,349 sqft
$410,000
Feb 1, 2026
$304/sqft/sqft
410 S Armenia Ave Unit 922, Tampa, FL 33609
Market Benchmark

Sold at market average

2 beds
2 baths
1,206 sqft
$390,000
Mar 1, 2026
$323/sqft/sqft
133 days on market
2421 W Horatio St Unit 835, Tampa, FL 33609
Market Benchmark

Representative market sale establishing baseline for properties in the core neighborhood.

1 beds
1 baths
721 sqft
$270,000
Feb 1, 2026
$374/sqft/sqft
255 days on market
520 S Armenia Ave Unit 1232, Tampa, FL 33609
Market Benchmark

Representative market sale establishing baseline for properties in the core neighborhood.

1 beds
1 baths
789 sqft
$245,000
Mar 1, 2026
$311/sqft/sqft
628 days on market
3102 W Horatio St Unit 12, Tampa, FL 33609
Value

Sold below market average

2 beds
1 baths
857 sqft
$220,000
Feb 1, 2026
$257/sqft/sqft
382 days on market
525 S Lincoln Ave Unit 106, Tampa, FL 33609
Value

Sold below market average

2 beds
1 baths
748 sqft
$180,000
Feb 1, 2026
$241/sqft/sqft
105 days on market
120 S Church Ave Unit 207, Tampa, FL 33609
Market Benchmark

Sold at market average

1 beds
1 baths
600 sqft
$165,000
Mar 1, 2026
$275/sqft/sqft
602 days on market
2808 W Azeele St Unit 117, Tampa, FL 33609
Value

Sold below market average

1 beds
1 baths
783 sqft
$140,000
Mar 1, 2026
$179/sqft/sqft
255 days on market

Investment Analysis

Compare rental income potential against ownership costs and benchmark against market averages.

Rent vs Cost to Own

Monthly rental income vs estimated ownership cost

-$2,277/mo
33609 Avg Rent
33609 Cost to Own
Rent$2,595
Own$4,872

20% down, 6.5% rate, 1.0% tax

Short-Term Rental

Avg nightly rate and occupancy for this ZIP

33609 Avg nightly rate
33609 Avg occupancy (days/year)
Nightly rate$187/night
Occupancy176 of 365 days

Data Sources

Real estate market data & public records, and GemHaus® proprietary models.

Report generated: 5/1/2026

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