Surprise, AZ 85388 Real Estate Market Report

ZIP Code: 85388
Report Date: February 2026
Market Temperature: NEUTRAL
Scope: Single-Family Residential (SFR) listings and comps only

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Executive Overview

The Surprise, AZ market is currently characterized by a median sold price of $465,000, reflecting a slight year-over-year price softening. This trend indicates a decrease in market values, which may suggest a shift in buyer sentiment or external economic factors influencing purchasing decisions. Despite this, the market is anticipated to stabilize and potentially appreciate modestly in 2026, driven by continued population in-migration and underlying demand for housing.

Transaction activity appears to be moderated, with median days on market extending to 146 days, indicating slower sales velocity. The current inventory conditions show elevated levels of supply relative to sales activity, which may create pricing friction for sellers as they navigate buyer expectations against actual market performance. Overall, the market temperature remains neutral, suggesting a balanced environment where neither buyers nor sellers hold a distinct advantage.

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Market Overview

This analysis is based on a sample of properties from this ZIP code (up to 200 sold properties and up to 100 active properties). The median prices below are calculated from all available properties in the sample, while trend analysis uses properties from the selected analysis window.

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Market Metrics

Note: The property counts shown above represent only the properties analyzed in this report sample, not the total inventory for this ZIP code. Median prices are calculated from all available properties in the sample, while trend analysis uses properties from the selected analysis window.

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Rental Market

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Property Taxes

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Liquidity & Velocity

Note: A Sale-to-List Ratio near 100% can occur when properties sell at or near their final listing price after price adjustments during the listing period, even when initial listing prices differ significantly from sale prices.

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Market Trends & Context

Understanding Market Temperature

A Neutral market indicates balanced conditions where neither buyers nor sellers have a strong advantage, typically characterized by flat price trends, extended but stable days on market, and moderate inventory relative to sales.

Current Mortgage Rate Context

Market-level mortgage rate comparison for this area:

Current 30-year fixed mortgage rates near 5.625% in Surprise AZ are notably lower than the national average of 6.21% for early 2026, presenting a cost advantage for recent borrowers.

Note: Interest rate comparisons provide market context. The existing "Interest Rate Pressure" metric above shows the qualitative market impact.

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Key Findings

1. The median sold price is $465,000, indicating a decrease in market values compared to previous periods.

2. With median days on market at 146, the market is experiencing slower sales velocity, suggesting potential challenges for sellers.

3. The median listing price stands at $528,830, reflecting a notable gap compared to the sold price, indicating pricing friction in the market.

4. The median market rent is $3,560, which has shown an up trend year-over-year, suggesting strong rental demand despite softening sales prices.

5. Current mortgage rates are around 5.625%, which is lower than the national average, providing a cost advantage for buyers in the Surprise market.

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Notable Properties

The following 8 properties represent notable market examples and recent transactions that illustrate key market dynamics. These are illustrative examples selected for their significance (top sales, market benchmarks, quick sales) and are not the basis for the statistical calculations shown above.