Surprise, AZ 85388 Real Estate Market Report

ZIP Code: 85388
Report Date: March 2026
Market Temperature: NEUTRAL
Scope: Single-Family Residential (SFR) listings and comps only

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Executive Overview

As of March 2026, the real estate market in Surprise, AZ is characterized by a median sold price of $488,000, reflecting a cooling trend in the market. The neighborhood has decreased 8% since 2022, indicating a shift in buyer sentiment and market dynamics. The median listing price stands at $499,000, suggesting a notable gap between seller expectations and actual transaction values, which may create pricing friction for potential buyers.

Transaction activity appears moderate, with median days on market at 179, indicating slower sales velocity. This extended time frame may suggest that buyers are taking a more cautious approach in their purchasing decisions. Overall, the market is experiencing elevated inventory levels, with excess supply relative to sales activity contributing to a more balanced market dynamic. Despite elevated national interest rates, local population growth continues to provide some underlying support for housing demand, particularly in specialized segments like 55+ properties.

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Market Overview

This analysis is based on a sample of properties from this ZIP code (up to 200 sold properties and up to 100 active properties). The median prices below are calculated from all available properties in the sample, while trend analysis uses properties from the selected analysis window.

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Market Metrics

Note: The property counts shown above represent only the properties analyzed in this report sample, not the total inventory for this ZIP code. Median prices are calculated from all available properties in the sample, while trend analysis uses properties from the selected analysis window.

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Rental Market

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Property Taxes

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Liquidity & Velocity

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Market Trends & Context

Understanding Market Temperature

A Neutral market indicates balanced conditions where neither buyers nor sellers have a strong advantage, typically characterized by flat price trends, extended but stable days on market, and moderate inventory relative to sales.

Current Mortgage Rate Context

Market-level mortgage rate comparison for this area:

Current 30-year fixed mortgage rates in the Surprise AZ market average 5.95%, which is 0.85% lower than the average rate of 6.8% seen one year ago for property owners.

Note: Interest rate comparisons provide market context. The existing "Interest Rate Pressure" metric above shows the qualitative market impact.

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Key Findings

1. The median sold price of $488,000 reflects a decrease of 8% since 2022, indicating a softening market.

2. With a median listing price of $499,000, there is a notable gap between asking prices and sold prices, suggesting potential pricing friction for sellers.

3. The median days on market is 179, which points to slower sales velocity and a more cautious buyer sentiment.

4. The market temperature is currently neutral, indicating a balanced market dynamic despite elevated interest rate pressure.

5. The median market rent is $3,560, which may indicate ongoing demand for rental properties even as sales activity cools.

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Notable Properties

The following 8 properties represent notable market examples and recent transactions that illustrate key market dynamics. These are illustrative examples selected for their significance (top sales, market benchmarks, quick sales) and are not the basis for the statistical calculations shown above.