Phoenix, AZ 85016 Real Estate Market Report

ZIP Code: 85016
Report Date: February 2026
Market Temperature: NEUTRAL
Scope: Single-Family Residential (SFR) listings and comps only

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Executive Overview

As of February 2026, the real estate market in Phoenix, AZ (ZIP: 85016) is characterized by a median sold price of $589,000, reflecting a notable divergence with recent price declines. The neighborhood has decreased 8% since 2022, indicating a shift in market dynamics that may be impacting buyer sentiment and expectations. Despite the overall Phoenix metro area stabilizing and showing modest appreciation forecasts, the 85016 ZIP code is experiencing challenges that suggest a need for careful navigation in pricing strategies.

Transaction activity appears to be moderate, with 181 days on market indicating a slower sales velocity. The current inventory conditions are marked by elevated inventory levels, suggesting excess supply relative to sales activity. This scenario may lead to pricing friction as sellers adjust their expectations in light of the current market realities. The median listing price stands at $762,500, which is significantly higher than the median sold price, further highlighting the gap between seller expectations and buyer willingness to pay.

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Market Overview

This analysis is based on a sample of properties from this ZIP code (up to 200 sold properties and up to 100 active properties). The median prices below are calculated from all available properties in the sample, while trend analysis uses properties from the selected analysis window.

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Market Metrics

Note: The property counts shown above represent only the properties analyzed in this report sample, not the total inventory for this ZIP code. Median prices are calculated from all available properties in the sample, while trend analysis uses properties from the selected analysis window.

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Rental Market

Note: The relationship between property values and rental rates reflects different market dynamics. Higher-priced properties may have lower rental yields due to factors such as luxury market positioning, owner-occupancy preferences, or long-term appreciation strategies rather than immediate rental income maximization.

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Property Taxes

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Liquidity & Velocity

Note: A Sale-to-List Ratio near 100% can occur when properties sell at or near their final listing price after price adjustments during the listing period, even when initial listing prices differ significantly from sale prices.

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Market Trends & Context

Understanding Market Temperature

A Neutral market indicates balanced conditions where neither buyers nor sellers have a strong advantage, typically characterized by flat price trends, extended but stable days on market, and moderate inventory relative to sales.

Current Mortgage Rate Context

Market-level mortgage rate comparison for this area:

Current 30-year fixed mortgage rates in the Phoenix 85016 area average around 5.875% to 6.04%, which is slightly lower than the 6.07% average seen in early February 2026.

Note: Interest rate comparisons provide market context. The existing "Interest Rate Pressure" metric above shows the qualitative market impact.

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Key Findings

1. The median sold price of $589,000 indicates a significant pricing gap compared to the median listing price of $762,500, suggesting potential pricing friction in the market.

2. Transaction velocity is slower, with properties remaining on the market for an average of 181 days, indicating a need for sellers to adjust their strategies.

3. The market temperature is currently neutral, suggesting balanced conditions despite the elevated inventory levels.

4. Year-over-year trends show that both sold prices and rents are down, which may impact buyer sentiment and investment strategies in the area.

5. The property tax rate is 0.44%, which remains a stable factor for homeowners and investors considering long-term holding in the market.

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Notable Properties

The following 8 properties represent notable market examples and recent transactions that illustrate key market dynamics. These are illustrative examples selected for their significance (top sales, market benchmarks, quick sales) and are not the basis for the statistical calculations shown above.