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Fairfax, VA 22033 Real Estate Market Report

ZIP Code: 22033
Report Date: May 2026
Market Temperature: NEUTRAL
Scope: This ZIP code analysis focuses on single-family residential (SFR) properties. Metrics are calculated from recent sales and active listings within the past 90 days.


Market Overview

This analysis is based on a sample of properties from this ZIP code (up to 200 sold properties and up to 100 active properties). The median prices below are calculated from all available properties in the sample, while trend analysis uses properties from the selected analysis window.

Analysis Window
90 Days
Total Properties Analyzed
67
Active Listings
20
Sold Properties
47

Market Metrics

Median Listing Price
$843,995
Median Sold Price
$773,000
Median Price per Sqft
$414/sqft

Note: The property counts shown above represent only the properties analyzed in this report sample, not the total inventory for this ZIP code. Median prices are calculated from all available properties in the sample, while trend analysis uses properties from the selected analysis window.


Rental Market

Median Market Rent
$2,590

Note: The relationship between property values and rental rates reflects different market dynamics. Higher-priced properties may have lower rental yields due to factors such as luxury market positioning, owner-occupancy preferences, or long-term appreciation strategies rather than immediate rental income maximization.


Property Taxes

Property Tax Rate
1.06%

Liquidity & Velocity

Median Days on Market
240
Sale-to-List Ratio
100.0%

Market Trends & Context

Understanding Market Temperature

A Neutral market indicates balanced conditions where neither buyers nor sellers have a strong advantage, typically characterized by flat price trends, extended but stable days on market, and moderate inventory relative to sales.

Price YoY Trend
down
Market Temperature
neutral
Rent YoY Trend
down
Interest Rate Pressure
elevated

Current Mortgage Rate Context

Market-level mortgage rate comparison for this area:

Current 30-year fixed mortgage rates in Fairfax, VA are 6.3% compared to the 5.8% average seen in February 2026, indicating that property owners who secured loans earlier this year locked in more favorable borrowing costs.

Note: Interest rate comparisons provide market context. The existing "Interest Rate Pressure" metric above shows the qualitative market impact.


Key Findings

  1. The neighborhood's primary market indicator, the median sold price, is 773,000, which anchors current market value and indicates recent transaction activity centered near that level; given the down price year-over-year trend, sellers should expect price pressure relative to prior periods.

  2. The median listing price of 843,995 currently sits above the median sold price of 773,000, suggesting a gap between seller expectations and completed transactions that may require price adjustments or longer marketing time to achieve sales; this dynamic aligns with the market temperature being neutral, indicating a more balanced negotiation environment.

  3. Market velocity appears slow based on a median days on market of 240, which signals extended listing periods and may reflect buyer caution or pricing friction; despite this, inventory is characterized as relatively constrained active supply in the analyzed sample, so well-priced, move-in-ready SFR or condo listings may still find buyers.

  4. Rental and financing context is mixed: the median market rent is 2,590 while rent year-over-year trend is down, and interest rate pressure is described as elevated, indicating borrowing costs remain a headwind for buyers and may keep some demand muted in the near term.


Notable Properties

The following 8 properties represent notable market examples and recent transactions that illustrate key market dynamics. These are illustrative examples selected for their significance (top sales, market benchmarks, quick sales) and are not the basis for the statistical calculations shown above.

Recent Transactions

3515 Broadrun Dr, Fairfax, VA 22033
Top Sale

Highest sale in the past 90 days. Fully renovated with modern finishes and premium lot positioning.

5 beds
4 baths
3,475 sqft
$1,525,000
Mar 1, 2026
$439/sqft/sqft
67 days on market
3883 Billberry Dr, Fairfax, VA 22033
Value

Sold below market average

4 beds
4 baths
3,788 sqft
$1,275,000
Mar 1, 2026
$337/sqft/sqft
100 days on market
12798 Fox Keep Run, Fairfax, VA 22033
Value

Sold below market average

3 beds
4 baths
3,828 sqft
$1,240,000
Mar 1, 2026
$324/sqft/sqft
163 days on market
13302 Pennypacker Ln, Fairfax, VA 22033
Market Benchmark

Representative market sale establishing baseline for properties in the core neighborhood.

3 beds
2 baths
1,928 sqft
$800,000
Feb 1, 2026
$415/sqft/sqft
85 days on market
4001 Middle Ridge Dr, Fairfax, VA 22033
Market Benchmark

Representative market sale establishing baseline for properties in the core neighborhood.

4 beds
2 baths
2,231 sqft
$800,000
Apr 1, 2026
$359/sqft/sqft
203 days on market
13128 Moss Ranch Ln, Fairfax, VA 22033
Market Benchmark

Representative market sale establishing baseline for properties in the core neighborhood.

4 beds
2 baths
1,950 sqft
$795,000
Mar 1, 2026
$408/sqft/sqft
109 days on market
3727 W Ox Rd, Fairfax, VA 22033
Value

Sold below market average

3 beds
2 baths
1,664 sqft
$535,000
Mar 1, 2026
$322/sqft/sqft
1446 days on market
13123 Pelfrey Ln, Fairfax, VA 22033
Value

Sold below market average

4 beds
2 baths
1,800 sqft
$480,000
Mar 1, 2026
$267/sqft/sqft

Fairfax, VA 22033 Real Estate Market Report

ZIP Code: 22033
Report Date: May 2026
Market Temperature: NEUTRAL
Scope: This ZIP code analysis focuses on condominium properties. Metrics are calculated from recent condo sales and active listings within the past 90 days.


Market Overview

This analysis is based on a sample of properties from this ZIP code (up to 200 sold properties and up to 100 active properties). The median prices below are calculated from all available properties in the sample, while trend analysis uses properties from the selected analysis window.

Analysis Window
90 Days
Total Properties Analyzed
55
Active Listings
8
Sold Properties
47

Market Metrics

Median Listing Price
$415,000
Median Sold Price
$407,430
Median Price per Sqft
$351/sqft

Note: The property counts shown above represent only the properties analyzed in this report sample, not the total inventory for this ZIP code. Median prices are calculated from all available properties in the sample, while trend analysis uses properties from the selected analysis window.


Rental Market

Median Market Rent
$2,500

Property Taxes

Property Tax Rate
1.10%

Liquidity & Velocity

Median Days on Market
273
Sale-to-List Ratio
100.0%

Market Trends & Context

Understanding Market Temperature

A Neutral market indicates balanced conditions where neither buyers nor sellers have a strong advantage, typically characterized by flat price trends, extended but stable days on market, and moderate inventory relative to sales.

Price YoY Trend
down
Market Temperature
neutral
Rent YoY Trend
down
Interest Rate Pressure
elevated

Current Mortgage Rate Context

Market-level mortgage rate comparison for this area:

Current 30-year fixed mortgage rates in Fairfax, VA are 6.3% compared to the 5.8% average seen in February 2026, indicating that property owners who secured loans earlier this year locked in more favorable borrowing costs.

Note: Interest rate comparisons provide market context. The existing "Interest Rate Pressure" metric above shows the qualitative market impact.


Key Findings

  1. The primary indicator, median sold price, is 407,430, which establishes recent transaction-level value for the neighborhood and—when compared to the median listing price of 415,000—suggests a modest pricing gap between seller expectations and completed sales.

  2. The market shows slower sales velocity with median days on market at 273, which may indicate increased time to contract and softer liquidity relative to faster-moving periods.

  3. Market context is mixed: market temperature is neutral while the price year-over-year trend is down, and the rent year-over-year trend is down, signaling a stabilizing market with cooling price and rent momentum.

  4. Financing and valuation signals matter for strategy: interest rate pressure is elevated (current 30‑year fixed at 6.3% versus a 5.8% average in February 2026), and the median price per square foot is 351 with median market rent at 2,500—use targeted pricing and concessions to compete for buyers who face higher borrowing costs and for renters in a softening rent environment.


Notable Properties

The following 8 properties represent notable market examples and recent transactions that illustrate key market dynamics. These are illustrative examples selected for their significance (top sales, market benchmarks, quick sales) and are not the basis for the statistical calculations shown above.

Recent Transactions

3925 Fair Ridge Dr Ste 503, Fairfax, VA 22033
Top Sale

Highest sale in the past 90 days. Fully renovated with modern finishes and premium lot positioning.

2 beds
2 baths
1,301 sqft
$569,900
Mar 1, 2026
$438/sqft/sqft
100 days on market
3925 Fair Ridge Dr Ste 304, Fairfax, VA 22033
Premium

Sold above market average

2 beds
2 baths
1,270 sqft
$555,000
Mar 1, 2026
$437/sqft/sqft
113 days on market
4490 Market Commons Dr Unit 602, Fairfax, VA 22033
Premium

Sold above market average

2 beds
2 baths
1,120 sqft
$552,500
Mar 1, 2026
$493/sqft/sqft
343 days on market
4480 Market Commons Dr Unit 505, Fairfax, VA 22033
Market Benchmark

Representative market sale establishing baseline for properties in the core neighborhood.

1 beds
1 baths
891 sqft
$400,000
Mar 1, 2026
$449/sqft/sqft
324 days on market
12887 Fair Briar Ln, Fairfax, VA 22033
Market Benchmark

Representative market sale establishing baseline for properties in the core neighborhood.

2 beds
2 baths
1,242 sqft
$395,000
Mar 1, 2026
$318/sqft/sqft
211 days on market
3916 Penderview Dr Apt 428, Fairfax, VA 22033
Market Benchmark

Representative market sale establishing baseline for properties in the core neighborhood.

2 beds
2 baths
1,070 sqft
$390,000
Mar 1, 2026
$364/sqft/sqft
79 days on market
3916 Penderview Dr Apt 427, Fairfax, VA 22033
Premium

Sold above market average

1 beds
1 baths
564 sqft
$255,000
Feb 1, 2026
$452/sqft/sqft
144 days on market
12160 Penderview Ln Apt 1737, Fairfax, VA 22033
Premium

Sold above market average

1 beds
1 baths
564 sqft
$250,000
Feb 1, 2026
$443/sqft/sqft
89 days on market

Investment Analysis

Compare rental income potential against ownership costs and benchmark against market averages.

Rent vs Cost to Own

Monthly rental income vs estimated ownership cost

-$2,143/mo
22033 Avg Rent
22033 Cost to Own
Rent$2,590
Own$4,733

20% down, 6.3% rate, 1.1% tax

Short-Term Rental

Avg nightly rate and occupancy for this ZIP

22033 Avg nightly rate
22033 Avg occupancy (days/year)
Nightly rate$75/night
Occupancy84 of 365 days

Data Sources

Real estate market data & public records, and GemHaus® proprietary models.

Report generated: 5/1/2026

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